With just a month to go, the presidential election remains razor-close, at least from an electoral college standpoint. Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz maintain a roughly 3% lead in national polling, but the electoral college remains extremely close with a number of key swing states in play.
To win the election, you must win 270 or more electoral votes. These electoral votes are divided up to the states based on population, but heavily favor smaller population states. The election will be decided not by who wins the most votes nationwide, but by what happens in just seven swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Together, the swing states are worth 93 electoral college votes combined. Harris-Walz need to pickup 44 more on top of the states they are already slated to win. Trump-Vance need 51 more. The map to the right breaks down where the election likely stands and where the election is likely to be won.
In the final days of the election, all of the swing states are a statistical tie, but Harris-Walz hold an advantage in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump-Vance hold an edge in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
If the three “Blue Wall” Great Lakes states go for Harris-Walz, they win the election and do not need the remaining swing states. The “Blue Wall” of Great Lakes states, made up of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, have bolstered Democrats to electoral victory in recent years.
Out east, North Carolina has experienced a significant political scandal relating to statements allegedly made online by Republican candidate Mark Robinson, which may hurt Republican turnout in the state, but due to Hurricane Helene, the state is hard to assess and polling has slowed down.
Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia have remained in play largely due to historic underperformance by Democrats with young male Black and Hispanic voters nationwide. Young men of color are the least likely to vote of all demographic groups, but their recent more conservative turn will hurt Democrats if they do turnout in large numbers.
Good for the Democrats is how well they are performing with women, who vote primarily for Democrats, bolstered by concerns around reproductive healthcare.
Polling isn’t perfect, but despite misconceptions around Trump’s win in 2016, polls had largely showed Clinton’s loss as a possibility all along. Polling should still be understood to always have the potential to be off, but is generally more accurate than internet comments may lead you to believe.
The above polling averages are an average of 2024 presidential general election polls nationally and in each state. Harris’ polling margin nationwide has remained roughly 3% and her lead in the Blue Wall states has bounced around 0.5% to 2%. (Source: Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin 2024 Presidential Election Forecast. Image captured at 8:30 AM on October 16th, 2024)
Despite the slight edge in polling, the electoral college as a whole continues to not favor the Democratic Party, with most of its voters concentrated in large metros. There is a real possibility that Harris-Walz win the popular vote by millions of votes, but lose in the electoral college with defeats of less than a percentage point in key states. President Biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes, but only squeaked across the Electoral college finish line due to close wins in Georgia and other key “Blue Wall” states. Clinton lost in 2016, despite winning the popular vote by millions because she performed poorly with union household voters who live in Great Lakes states. Harris and Walz’s victory will likely hinge on performing well with the same groups.
Arizona is a very unique situation this year, because while Trump is polling slightly ahead of Harris, the Republican Senate candidate, Kari Lake, in the state is losing by a wide margin to Democrat Ruben Gallego. Lake is a known election denier, which has hurt her significantly, but then again so is Trump. Biden won Arizona in 2020 by a thin margin.
Nevada is normally a state where the election could be decided, but the number of situations where Nevada’s 6 electoral votes get either candidate over 270 are extremely weird and unlikely. A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state since 2004, partially due to the enormous electoral power of Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and Bartenders Union Local 165.
The continuation of the electoral college eats into the amount of time candidates spend in Missouri and Kansas. If candidates only have to win certain states, Republicans and Democrats alike will completely ignore places like Kansas City, located in two safely Republican-held states.
While this election is “close” it is important to understand that we could see Harris win 319 to 219 or Trump win 312-226, and both outcomes could be due to very close results in the swing states. The most likely outcome at this point is a Harris win, 276-262, with Harris winning the Blue Wall states and Nevada by the skin of her teeth, but it is important to note that this outcome is not guaranteed. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, the election is likely a 281-257 Trump victory. There are very few situations where Harris loses Pennsylvania and then turns around and wins the election, but if she does it would require her to win both North Carolina or Georgia, or just one of those states and Nevada.
Note from the Editor: While the Labor Beacon did not print the unique details of the Mark Robinson scandal, (the paper may be read by children who live in union homes) it can say that Nazism and slavery are morally repugnant and not consistent with the values of the labor movement. You can google it.
This election is going to be wildly impactful for the shape of the future of out country, with multiple Supreme Court seats and hundreds of judges likely to be appointed by the next president. While Missouri and Kansas are not currently swing states, it is essential you turnout to vote for union-endorsed candidates. If you have family in a swing state, make sure they have a plan to vote for union-endorsed candidates.
Tristin Amezcua-Hogan is the Editor of The Labor Beacon and a member of LIUNA Local 264. Tristin also serves as the Director of Communications for the Greater Kansas City AFL-CIO and the Chair of the Kansas City Regional Transit Alliance.
Tristin grew up as the son of a UA Local 669 member in Tecumseh, KS and the great-nephew of George C. Amis, longtime leader of the United Rubberworkers (now USW Local 307) in Kansas. Growing up in rural Kansas as the child of teen parents, Tristin quickly came to appreciate the life-changing benefit of a union job.
Tristin and his partner, Rebeca Amezcua-Hogan, are residents of the Westside, Kansas City, MO's historic Mexican neighborhood. They are proud members of Kansas City's New Reform Temple.
